The Signal and The Noise
por Silver, Nate
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't
por Nate Silver
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- 2012
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Batavia , Illinois, USA
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Penguin Press, 2012. Hardcover. Fine/Near Fine. Signed and inscribed by author "To Craig-" Minor shelf wear to dust jacket.
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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
por Silver, Nate
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- 2012
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Book and dust jacket are in fine condition. The image provided is the actual book I'm offering for sale. No markings or damage to any pages. No sunning. No clips. Structure of the book (covers, binding, spine, hinges) is tight and free of damage. Page block is nice and square. Cut pages. Additional photos will be provided upon request to… Ler mais sobre este item Preço do item
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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't
por Silver, Nate
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Seattle, Washington, USA
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Penguin Books, 2015. Paperback. Good. Former library book; Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less.Dust jacket quality is not guaranteed. Preço do item
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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't
por Silver, Nate
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GORING BY SEA, West Sussex, GBR
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Hardback. Very Good. Preço do item
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The Signal and the Noise
por Silver, Nate
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New York: The Penguin Press, 2012. First Edition. Hardcover. Fine/Fine. Ninth Printing. Fine in a Near Fine jacket, unclipped ($27.95), lightly bumped at the edges. Quarter black buckram with black paper on the boards. Square and firmly bound, clean internally. A runaway best-seller from the man behind FiveThirtyEight. Here Silver "examines the world of prediction, investigating how we… Ler mais sobre este item Preço do item
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THE SIGNAL AND THE NOISE
por Nate Silver
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New York: Penguin Press. 2012. First Edition; First Printing. Hardcover. Very Good+ in a Very Good+ dust jacket. Sunning on rear panel and top edge of front panel. . Preço do item
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The Signal and the Noise : Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't
por Nate Silver
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- 2015
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Seattle, Washington, USA
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Penguin Publishing Group, 2015. Paperback. Good. Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less.Dust jacket quality is not guaranteed. Preço do item
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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't
por Silver, Nate
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Seattle, Washington, USA
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Penguin Press, 2013. Paperback. Good. Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less.Dust jacket quality is not guaranteed. Preço do item
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The Signal and The Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't
por Silver, Nate
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The Penguin Press, 2012. Hardcover. As New/As New. (1st edition, 2d printing) Large, sturdy book, bright bronze initials on front, very bright bronze lettering on spine, 534 pages, many charts throughout. DJ glossy yellow background, orange title pattern also, raised black lettering, praise on back from Rachel Maddow, Gov. John Huntsman and others. DJ and book, both As… Ler mais sobre este item Preço do item
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THE SIGNAL AND THE NOISE: THE ART AND SCIENCE OF PREDICTION
por Silver, Nate
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Melbourne: Allen Lane. Very Good; Yellowed paper. 2012. Paperback. 1846147735 . Index. "In this book, the author explores the art of prediction, revealing how we can all build a better crystal ball. He reveals how we can all develop better foresight in our everyday lives." 750gms weight; 8vo 8" - 9" tall; 536 pages . Preço do item
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The Signal and the Noise; Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
por Silver, Nate
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New York: The Penguin Press, 2012. Hardcover. pp. 534. 8vo. Black & white illustrations. Light general shelfwear; very good- in lightly edgeworn, very good- dustjacket. Preço do item
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The Signal and the Noise : Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't
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Penguin Publishing Group. Used - Very Good. Former library book; may include library markings. Used book that is in excellent condition. May show signs of wear or have minor defects. Preço do item
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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't
por Silver, Nate
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Penguin Press, 2012. Hardcover. Very Good. May have limited writing in cover pages. Pages are unmarked. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less.Dust jacket quality is not guaranteed. Preço do item
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The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction
por Silver, Nate
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London: Penguin, 2011 9780141975658. Soft cover. Like new apart from some pencilled underlinings of key sentences.534 pages. Reveals how we can all develop better foresight in an uncertain world. From the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to the economy, the author takes us on an enthralling insider's tour of the high-stakes world of forecasting, showing how we… Ler mais sobre este item Preço do item
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Burnt Shadows
por Shamsie, Kamila
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The Signal and the Noise : Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't
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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail  but Some Don't
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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't
por Silver, Nate
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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail  but Some Don't
por Silver, Nate
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Waltham, Massachusetts, USA
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Penguin Press. Used - Good. A sound copy with only light wear. Overall a solid copy at a great price! Preço do item
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